“It is not really necessary to look too far into the future; we see enough already to be certain it will be magnificent. Only let us hurry and open the roads.”
—Wilbur Wright
“Science has not yet mastered prophecy. We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next ten.”
—Neil Armstrong
As I ponder the future of commercial air travel, I recall these words from two famous aviators at very different moments in the 20th-century.
With a Moon landing under his belt, I imagine a young 39-year-old Neil Armstrong traveling back in time to that famous day on December 17, 1906, and standing among the five people who witnessed four record-breaking flights by Orville and Wilbur Wright at what is now Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina.
Once Wilbur and Orville decided to call it a day, I’m sure Armstrong would have offered each of the men a firm handshake of congratulations. At the age of 36, Wilbur Wright had logged less than one minute of flight time on his three flights (his first being a 3-second flight on December 14th) in a powered flying machine. The flights were less than 200 feet in length at a ground speed of less than 7 mph (headwinds of 27 mph)—all at an altitude of approximately 10 feet. At 39 years old, Neil Armstrong had walked on the lunar surface of the Moon for approximately two-and-a-half hours after traveling almost a quarter of a million miles in 3 days at a speed of more than 3,000 mph to get there.
I see the conversation continuing as Armstrong tells his fellow aviators that he is from the future—1969. He would assure Wilbur that, thanks to him and his brother, the future of aviation would definitely be magnificent.
As we reflect on what has transpired over the last 100 years of air travel, we can only assume that Wilbur Wright’s interpretation of the word magnificent would have been extremely conservative.
Innovation is always one step ahead of our needs as technological breakthroughs rocket us into a science fiction world. Consider the following list of inventions that did not exist 50 years ago: ATM, handheld calculator, videocassette recorder, compact disc (CD), digital videodisc (DVD), personal computer, digital wristwatch, World Wide Web, Internet, Kevlar, light-emitting diode (LED), liquid crystal display (LCD), motorized personal watercraft, personal stereo, video games, Astro Turf, home smoke detector, DNA fingerprinting, genetic engineering, synthetic skin, laser vision correction, CAT scan, Prozac, and Viagra.
Innovation and technology are dead without a demand for it. Demand is the most critical long-term challenge facing the future of air travel. The volume of travel is doubling every 15 years. Between 1976 and 2001, the demand for air transportation increased by 250 percent. But we must ask: Will technology and innovation be able to keep pace with the demand? Composite materials of the future could eliminate the need for structural testing; the need for faster air travel will certainly result in lighter aircraft and more efficient propulsion systems; the limited supply of fossil fuels will result in new types of energy (hydrogen, gas, solar, electric, nuclear, or an energy source yet to be discovered). Remotely piloted airliners are a real possibility, and personal airborne transportation vehicles would be possible with advances in dynamic stabilization systems.
Satisfying the demand for air travel over the next 25 to 50 years will not be without struggle. The commercial aviation industry and the government’s certification processes are cautious when it comes to the acceptance of new concepts and technologies—it's caution measured in decades. Security concerns and procedures have increased the travel time and are keeping many air travelers at home. The downturns in the national and global economies are providing incentives for the corporate world to find new ways of doing business remotely. The same concerns are also inducing many leisure travelers to plan vacations that do not require travel by air. Will the continued, evolutionary improvements to existing technologies, aircraft, air traffic control systems, and operational concepts be able to keep pace with demand? Bottom line: The same key variables that for decades have ultimately decided the future of air travel are safety and security, reliability, capacity, consumer satisfaction, and affordability.
What will commercial air travel look like in 25, 50, or 100 years? I believe Wilbur and Neil said it best.
Mike Coe was born and raised in Dothan, Alabama and currently resides in Southern California. He is a graduate of Auburn University (B.A. '76 in Aviation Management) and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (M.S. Aeronautical Science '84). He served six years as an Air Force pilot, five years as a corporate pilot, and 21 years as a commercial airline pilot for American Airlines. His first novel, Flight to Paradise, was released May 2010; his second novel, Flight into Darkness, was released November 2011; his third novel in the Flight Trilogy, Flight to Freedom, is scheduled to be released in 2012.